NEWS BLOG: Interpreting the Walker win

BY JEREMY MOULE

 

If you’re looking for meaning in last night’s Wisconsin recall election, you should read Nate Silver’s take. The New York Times blogger says that Republican Governor Scott Walker’s victory isn’t necessarily bad news for President Barack Obama.

Walker stripped away union rights for most public employees and the subsequent backlash led to the recall election.

Silver, the New York Times blogger who blends statistical analysis with political commentary, compared the presidential and Wisconsin races in recent posts. And he’s reiterated a simple point: “I don’t really think WI will tell us much about November. The same polls that have Walker ahead have Obama winning, too.”

Steve Kornacki at Salon makes a similar point in an article posted this morning.

Silver’s blog post from last night is also worth a read. He makes the case that governor’s elections aren’t good indicators of how presidential elections will play out.

“The politics for a governor’s campaign are often subject to different currents than presidential ones, and historically the party identification of a state’s governor has said little about how presidential candidates will fare there,” he wrote.

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